2025 in Belarus: Anomalous Cold Persists into Late May

Spring of 2025 in Belarus is in no hurry to delight the country’s residents with warm weather. The meteorological situation over Eastern Europe continues to keep temperatures significantly below the climatic norm. Many Belarusians are eagerly awaiting the arrival of true spring warmth, but forecasters are in no rush to offer hopeful predictions.

Cold May: Numbers and Facts

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), anomalously cold weather will persist in Belarus until the end of May. Experts highlight two periods with varying intensity of cooling:

• From May 12 to 18, 2025, an especially cold spell is expected — air temperatures will be 3–6 °C below the climatic norm for this time of year.
• In the period from May 19 to 26, the situation will improve slightly, but temperatures will still remain 1–3 °C below the average values for this period.

Thus, residents of Belarus should not expect sustained warmth at least until the last week of May. Moreover, there is no guarantee that a significant warming will occur after May 25 — meteorologists are still refraining from long-term forecasts for the end of the month.

Causes of Prolonged Cold

Meteorologists explain the prolonged cooling in Belarus by a persistent atmospheric circulation system that has formed over the European continent. A key role in this process is played by the specific arrangement of barometric systems:

1. A high-pressure upper-level anticyclone has settled over the North Atlantic.
2. A low-pressure upper-level cyclone is established over the European part of Russia.

This arrangement of barometric systems creates airflows that direct cold air masses from polar regions directly into Central and Eastern Europe, including Belarus. Meteorologists characterize this system as anomalously stable, which explains the duration of the cold period. Analysis of the forecasted 500 hPa geopotential anomaly shows that this circulation system will maintain its position at least until the third decade of May, preventing warm air masses from penetrating into Belarus.

When to Expect Warming?

Based on available data, meteorologists suggest that the first signs of sustained warming may appear no earlier than the last week of May. However, even during this period, there is a high probability that air temperatures will only approach the climatic norm without significantly exceeding it. The long-awaited summer warmth, according to preliminary forecasts, may arrive in Belarus only in early June 2025. Meteorologists note that the current year is marked by anomalous climatic phenomena not only in Belarus but in many regions of Europe, possibly linked to global shifts in climate patterns. Belarusian residents are advised not to rush into their summer wardrobes and to keep warm clothing readily accessible at least until the end of May, as weather conditions will remain unstable with predominantly below-normal temperatures.