Coffee Prices in Russia Soar: What to Expect in 2025

Coffee — one of the most popular beverages in Russia — continues to rapidly become more expensive. Global prices for coffee beans are breaking records, and supply shortages along with climate change only intensify this trend. Experts warn: in 2025, the cost of a cup of coffee could increase by another 20–25%. What is happening in the market and how will this affect Russians? Let's explore the reasons and forecasts.

The Global Coffee Market Crisis: Droughts, Floods, and Shortages

The main reason for rising coffee prices in 2025, experts say, is adverse weather conditions in producing countries. Brazil, which supplies 40% of the world’s Arabica, has experienced the worst drought in decades, reducing yields by 20% per hectare. In Vietnam, the largest supplier of Robusta, floods and typhoons have also hit production. As a result, the supply of coffee beans on the market has shrunk while demand continues to grow. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), futures for Arabica increased by 70% in 2024, reaching $4.30 per pound in February 2025. Robusta, used in instant coffee and inexpensive blends, has become 72% more expensive, up to $5847 per ton. The CEO of the “Roschaikofe” association, Ramaz Chanturia, notes: “Demand has exceeded supply for 5–6 years, and the situation is only getting worse.” Besides climate, other factors are putting pressure on prices:

• Logistics disruptions: the aftermath of the pandemic and military conflicts, including the situation in Ukraine, have increased transportation costs.
• Rising costs: energy resources, fertilizers, and labor are becoming more expensive due to global inflation.
• Weakening of the ruble: coffee is an imported product, and its price in Russia directly depends on the dollar exchange rate.

How is Coffee Becoming More Expensive in Russia?

Russia is already feeling the impact of the global crisis. According to analysts from Quick Resto, over the course of one year (from July 2023 to July 2024), coffee drinks in cafes have become 9–14% more expensive. Espresso has increased in price by 14%, cappuccino by 12%, and latte by 9%. The company “Evotor” reports that ground coffee in 2024 has become 16% more expensive (up to 1.46 rubles per gram), instant coffee by 12% (up to 2.66 rubles), and portioned coffee by 8% (up to 1.26 rubles). In Moscow, a takeaway cup of coffee already costs on average 211 rubles, and with the popular brand Lavazza — up to 260 rubles. In other regions, prices vary: in Krasnoyarsk, they are close to those in the capital, while in Krasnodar, they remain lower. Experts predict that in 2025, the median price of coffee in Russia will rise by 20–25%, and in some cafes — up to 30%. “Coffee is unlikely to return to its previous prices. We must come to terms with the new reality,” says Vytautas Kratulis, owner of the Huracan Coffee chain.

Russians Drink More Coffee Despite the Prices

Russia is confidently among the leaders in the growth of coffee consumption. According to the ICO report for 2022–2023, the volume of consumption in the country increased by 7.1%, reaching 306 thousand tons. This is the highest figure among major importing countries. For comparison: in the USA, demand fell by 5.9%, in Germany — by 5.5%, and in Japan — by 7.1%. Coffee is becoming an integral part of Russians' lives. “Starting the day with a cup of coffee is a ritual that people are not willing to give up,” notes Sergey Rumyantsev, founder of One Price Coffee. Even though prices are rising, it has not yet diminished the drink’s popularity, although consumers are beginning to look for more affordable options.

What Will Happen to Coffee Shops?

Rising raw material prices pose a serious challenge for Russian catering. Coffee shop owners are facing increased costs not only for beans, but also for milk (which has become 15% more expensive), rent (up 7–10%), and staff salaries (up 10–12%). Some establishments are trying to control prices by using old supplies or long-term contracts with suppliers, but this is a temporary measure. “New supplies are already arriving at higher prices. We will feel the effect in the coming months,” says Ekaterina Gorina from Tasty Coffee. In large chains like “Double B”, they assure that for now they are working with pre-contracted raw materials, but a price revision is inevitable by the summer of 2025. In “Shokoladnitsa”, they plan to maintain prices until June, but they admit: consumers are not ready for a sharp jump. Small coffee shops risk not surviving the competition. Vytautas Kratulis notes: “Many are closing not because of coffee, but due to the overall increase in expenses. Rent, services, raw materials — everything is getting more expensive.”

Alternatives and Forecasts

Experts believe that there will not be a sharp abandonment of coffee, but some Russians may switch to cheaper alternatives: chicory, grain-based drinks, or tea. At the same time, coffee shop owners are looking for ways to optimize: switching to cheaper varieties, reducing portions, or raising prices. There is also a slight optimism: a Reuters poll predicts a 30% decrease in Arabica prices by the end of 2025, if Brazil has a good harvest. However, Ramaz Chanturia doubts a quick improvement: “Next year will be difficult. Production cannot keep up with demand.”

What Should Coffee Lovers Do?

Coffee lovers in Russia should prepare for new prices. A cup of espresso or cappuccino in 2025 may increase by 15–30 rubles, and bean coffee in stores may exceed 2500 rubles per kilogram in the premium segment. To save money, you can:

• Look for cafes with promotions or loyal pricing.
• Buy beans in bulk and prepare at home.
• Consider switching to Robusta — it is currently rising in price more slowly than Arabica.

Coffee in Russia is becoming more expensive, but its popularity is not waning. The only question is how much coffee lovers are willing to pay for their morning ritual.